app/Dashboard/Stats/PublishSuccessRate.php

@@ -0,0 +1,53 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Dashboard\Stats;
+
+use App\Enums\PublishStatusEnum;
+use App\Models\RouteArticle;
+use App\Support\DateRange;
+
+class PublishSuccessRate extends DailySeriesStat
+{
+    public function key(): string
+    {
+        return 'publish-success-rate';
+    }
+
+    public function label(): string
+    {
+        return 'Publish Success Rate';
+    }
+
+    protected function series(DateRange $range, array $days): SeriesResult
+    {
+        // Buckets follow updated_at, so a retry re-dates its article to the retry day.
+        $attempts = RouteArticle::query()
+            ->toBase()
+            ->whereBetween('updated_at', [$range->from, $range->to])
+            ->whereIn('publish_status', PublishStatusEnum::settledValues())
+            ->selectRaw(
+                'DATE(updated_at) as bucket, COUNT(*) as total, SUM(CASE WHEN publish_status = ? THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) as published',
+                [PublishStatusEnum::PUBLISHED->value],
+            )
+            ->groupBy('bucket')
+            ->get()
+            ->keyBy('bucket');
+
+        $values = array_map(
+            function (string $day) use ($attempts): ?float {
+                $attempt = $attempts->get($day);
+
+                if ($attempt === null || (int) $attempt->total === 0) {
+                    return null;
+                }
+
+                return round(((int) $attempt->published / (int) $attempt->total) * 100, 1);
+            },
+            $days,
+        );
+
+        return new SeriesResult($days, [
+            new Series('Publish Success Rate', $values, zeroIsMeaningful: true),
+        ]);
+    }
+}

app/Enums/PublishStatusEnum.php

@@ -9,4 +9,21 @@ enum PublishStatusEnum: string
     case PUBLISHED = 'published';
     case SKIPPED = 'skipped';
     case ERROR = 'error';
+
+    /** Skipped articles were never attempted, so they are not a publish outcome. */
+    public function isSettled(): bool
+    {
+        return $this === self::PUBLISHED || $this === self::ERROR;
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * @return array<int, string>
+     */
+    public static function settledValues(): array
+    {
+        return array_values(array_map(
+            fn (self $status): string => $status->value,
+            array_filter(self::cases(), fn (self $status): bool => $status->isSettled()),
+        ));
+    }
 }

app/Livewire/Dashboard.php

@@ -8,6 +8,7 @@
 use App\Dashboard\Stats\BreakdownResult;
 use App\Dashboard\Stats\BreakdownStat;
 use App\Dashboard\Stats\PublicationsPerChannel;
+use App\Dashboard\Stats\PublishSuccessRate;
 use App\Dashboard\Stats\SeriesResult;
 use App\Services\DashboardStatsService;
 use App\Support\DateRange;
@@ -37,6 +38,7 @@ public function mount(): void
         'article-statistics',
         'articles-trend',
         'approval-rate',
+        'publish-success-rate',
         'articles-per-feed',
         'publications-per-channel',
     ];
@@ -143,6 +145,16 @@ public function approvalRate(): SeriesResult
             : new SeriesResult([], []);
     }
 
+    #[Computed]
+    public function publishSuccessRate(): SeriesResult
+    {
+        $range = $this->range();
+
+        return $range instanceof DateRange
+            ? app(PublishSuccessRate::class)->for($range)
+            : new SeriesResult([], []);
+    }
+
     #[Computed]
     public function articlesPerFeed(): BreakdownResult
     {

resources/views/livewire/dashboard.blade.php

@@ -213,6 +213,21 @@ class="rounded-md border border-gray-300 text-sm focus:border-blue-500 focus:rin
             @endisland
         </div>
 
+        <div>
+            <h2 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-900 mb-4 dark:text-gray-100">Publish Success Rate</h2>
+
+            @island('publish-success-rate')
+            @include('livewire.partials.trend-panel', [
+                'island' => 'publish-success-rate',
+                'result' => $this->publishSuccessRate,
+                'emptyMessage' => 'No publish attempts in this range.',
+                'tooWideMessage' => 'This range is too wide to chart by day. Pick a range under two years.',
+                'suffix' => '%',
+                'max' => 100,
+            ])
+            @endisland
+        </div>
+
         <div class="space-y-6">
             <div>
                 <h2 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-900 mb-4 dark:text-gray-100">Articles per Feed</h2>

tests/Feature/Livewire/DashboardTest.php

@@ -3,6 +3,7 @@
 namespace Tests\Feature\Livewire;
 
 use App\Enums\ApprovalStatusEnum;
+use App\Enums\PublishStatusEnum;
 use App\Livewire\Dashboard;
 use App\Models\Article;
 use App\Models\Feed;
@@ -412,4 +413,72 @@ public function test_it_renders_an_empty_trend_for_an_invalid_range(): void
             ->assertSee('Fetched vs Published')
             ->assertDontSee('x-ref="canvas"', false);
     }
+
+    private function publishAttempt(PublishStatusEnum $status, string $updatedAt): void
+    {
+        $routeArticle = RouteArticle::factory()->create(['publish_status' => $status]);
+
+        // Model::update() would re-stamp updated_at to now(); bypass via the query builder.
+        RouteArticle::query()
+            ->whereKey($routeArticle->getKey())
+            ->update(['updated_at' => Carbon::parse($updatedAt)]);
+    }
+
+    public function test_it_renders_the_publish_success_rate_chart_on_mount(): void
+    {
+        Carbon::setTestNow('2026-07-15 13:45:00');
+
+        $this->publishAttempt(PublishStatusEnum::PUBLISHED, '2026-07-15 09:00:00');
+
+        Livewire::test(Dashboard::class)
+            ->assertSee('Publish Success Rate')
+            ->assertSee('trendChart(', false)
+            ->assertSee('x-ref="canvas"', false);
+    }
+
+    public function test_it_refreshes_the_publish_success_rate_island_when_the_range_changes(): void
+    {
+        $this->publishAttempt(PublishStatusEnum::PUBLISHED, '2026-07-10 12:00:00');
+
+        $fragments = $this->islandFragments(
+            Livewire::test(Dashboard::class)->call('applyRange', '2026-07-01', '2026-07-31')
+        );
+
+        $this->assertStringContainsString('name=publish-success-rate|', $fragments);
+        $this->assertStringContainsString('Publish Success Rate', $fragments);
+        $this->assertStringContainsString('2026-07-10', $fragments);
+    }
+
+    public function test_it_charts_a_day_where_every_publish_failed(): void
+    {
+        $this->publishAttempt(PublishStatusEnum::ERROR, '2026-07-10 12:00:00');
+
+        $fragments = $this->islandFragments(
+            Livewire::test(Dashboard::class)->call('applyRange', '2026-07-01', '2026-07-31')
+        );
+
+        $this->assertStringNotContainsString('No publish attempts in this range.', $fragments);
+    }
+
+    public function test_it_reports_a_range_with_no_publish_attempts(): void
+    {
+        $this->publishAttempt(PublishStatusEnum::SKIPPED, '2026-07-10 12:00:00');
+
+        $fragments = $this->islandFragments(
+            Livewire::test(Dashboard::class)->call('applyRange', '2026-07-01', '2026-07-31')
+        );
+
+        $this->assertStringContainsString('No publish attempts in this range.', $fragments);
+    }
+
+    public function test_every_range_dependent_island_re_renders_on_a_range_change(): void
+    {
+        $fragments = $this->islandFragments(
+            Livewire::test(Dashboard::class)->call('applyRange', '2026-07-01', '2026-07-31')
+        );
+
+        foreach (['articles-trend', 'approval-rate', 'publish-success-rate', 'articles-per-feed', 'publications-per-channel'] as $island) {
+            $this->assertStringContainsString("name={$island}|", $fragments);
+        }
+    }
 }

tests/Unit/Dashboard/Stats/PublishSuccessRateTest.php

@@ -0,0 +1,143 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace Tests\Unit\Dashboard\Stats;
+
+use App\Dashboard\Stats\PublishSuccessRate;
+use App\Enums\PublishStatusEnum;
+use App\Models\RouteArticle;
+use App\Support\DateRange;
+use Illuminate\Foundation\Testing\RefreshDatabase;
+use Illuminate\Support\Carbon;
+use Tests\TestCase;
+
+class PublishSuccessRateTest extends TestCase
+{
+    use RefreshDatabase;
+
+    private function range(): DateRange
+    {
+        return new DateRange(
+            Carbon::parse('2026-07-01 00:00:00'),
+            Carbon::parse('2026-07-31 23:59:59'),
+        );
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * @return array<string, float|null>
+     */
+    private function values(): array
+    {
+        $result = (new PublishSuccessRate)->for($this->range());
+
+        return array_combine($result->labels, $result->series[0]->values);
+    }
+
+    private function attempt(PublishStatusEnum $status, string $updatedAt): RouteArticle
+    {
+        /** @var RouteArticle $article */
+        $article = RouteArticle::factory()->create(['publish_status' => $status]);
+
+        // Model::update() would re-stamp updated_at to now(); bypass via the query builder.
+        RouteArticle::query()
+            ->whereKey($article->getKey())
+            ->update(['updated_at' => Carbon::parse($updatedAt)]);
+
+        return $article;
+    }
+
+    public function test_it_computes_the_published_share_of_daily_attempts(): void
+    {
+        $this->attempt(PublishStatusEnum::PUBLISHED, '2026-07-10 09:00:00');
+        $this->attempt(PublishStatusEnum::PUBLISHED, '2026-07-10 10:00:00');
+        $this->attempt(PublishStatusEnum::PUBLISHED, '2026-07-10 11:00:00');
+        $this->attempt(PublishStatusEnum::ERROR, '2026-07-10 12:00:00');
+
+        $this->assertSame(75.0, $this->values()['2026-07-10']);
+    }
+
+    public function test_it_excludes_skipped_articles_from_the_denominator(): void
+    {
+        $this->attempt(PublishStatusEnum::PUBLISHED, '2026-07-10 09:00:00');
+        $this->attempt(PublishStatusEnum::SKIPPED, '2026-07-10 10:00:00');
+
+        $this->assertSame(100.0, $this->values()['2026-07-10']);
+    }
+
+    public function test_it_excludes_articles_still_in_flight(): void
+    {
+        $this->attempt(PublishStatusEnum::PUBLISHED, '2026-07-10 09:00:00');
+        $this->attempt(PublishStatusEnum::PUBLISHING, '2026-07-10 10:00:00');
+        $this->attempt(PublishStatusEnum::UNPUBLISHED, '2026-07-10 11:00:00');
+
+        $this->assertSame(100.0, $this->values()['2026-07-10']);
+    }
+
+    public function test_it_reports_no_rate_for_a_day_with_no_attempts(): void
+    {
+        $this->attempt(PublishStatusEnum::PUBLISHED, '2026-07-10 09:00:00');
+
+        $this->assertNull($this->values()['2026-07-11']);
+    }
+
+    public function test_it_reports_a_zero_rate_when_every_attempt_failed(): void
+    {
+        $this->attempt(PublishStatusEnum::ERROR, '2026-07-10 09:00:00');
+
+        $this->assertSame(0.0, $this->values()['2026-07-10']);
+    }
+
+    public function test_it_counts_an_article_on_the_day_it_was_last_touched(): void
+    {
+        $this->attempt(PublishStatusEnum::ERROR, '2026-07-10 09:00:00');
+        $this->attempt(PublishStatusEnum::PUBLISHED, '2026-07-12 09:00:00');
+
+        $values = $this->values();
+
+        $this->assertSame(0.0, $values['2026-07-10']);
+        $this->assertSame(100.0, $values['2026-07-12']);
+    }
+
+    public function test_a_retry_moves_the_article_to_the_retry_day(): void
+    {
+        $article = $this->attempt(PublishStatusEnum::ERROR, '2026-07-10 09:00:00');
+
+        RouteArticle::query()
+            ->whereKey($article->getKey())
+            ->update([
+                'publish_status' => PublishStatusEnum::PUBLISHED,
+                'updated_at' => Carbon::parse('2026-07-12 09:00:00'),
+            ]);
+
+        $values = $this->values();
+
+        $this->assertNull($values['2026-07-10']);
+        $this->assertSame(100.0, $values['2026-07-12']);
+    }
+
+    public function test_it_ignores_attempts_outside_the_range(): void
+    {
+        $this->attempt(PublishStatusEnum::PUBLISHED, '2026-06-30 23:00:00');
+        $this->attempt(PublishStatusEnum::ERROR, '2026-08-01 01:00:00');
+
+        $this->assertSame([], array_filter($this->values(), fn (?float $value): bool => $value !== null));
+    }
+
+    public function test_it_rounds_the_rate_to_one_decimal(): void
+    {
+        $this->attempt(PublishStatusEnum::PUBLISHED, '2026-07-10 09:00:00');
+        $this->attempt(PublishStatusEnum::PUBLISHED, '2026-07-10 10:00:00');
+        $this->attempt(PublishStatusEnum::ERROR, '2026-07-10 11:00:00');
+
+        $this->assertSame(66.7, $this->values()['2026-07-10']);
+    }
+
+    public function test_it_refuses_to_bucket_a_range_wider_than_the_day_limit(): void
+    {
+        $result = (new PublishSuccessRate)->for(new DateRange(
+            Carbon::parse('2020-01-01 00:00:00'),
+            Carbon::parse('2026-12-31 23:59:59'),
+        ));
+
+        $this->assertTrue($result->isTooWide());
+    }
+}

tests/Unit/Enums/PublishStatusEnumTest.php

@@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace Tests\Unit\Enums;
+
+use App\Enums\PublishStatusEnum;
+use PHPUnit\Framework\TestCase;
+
+class PublishStatusEnumTest extends TestCase
+{
+    public function test_published_and_error_are_settled(): void
+    {
+        $this->assertTrue(PublishStatusEnum::PUBLISHED->isSettled());
+        $this->assertTrue(PublishStatusEnum::ERROR->isSettled());
+    }
+
+    public function test_skipped_is_not_a_publish_outcome(): void
+    {
+        $this->assertFalse(PublishStatusEnum::SKIPPED->isSettled());
+    }
+
+    public function test_in_flight_statuses_are_not_settled(): void
+    {
+        $this->assertFalse(PublishStatusEnum::UNPUBLISHED->isSettled());
+        $this->assertFalse(PublishStatusEnum::PUBLISHING->isSettled());
+    }
+
+    public function test_settled_values_lists_every_settled_case(): void
+    {
+        $this->assertSame(['published', 'error'], PublishStatusEnum::settledValues());
+    }
+
+    public function test_settled_values_stays_in_step_with_the_cases(): void
+    {
+        $expected = array_values(array_map(
+            fn (PublishStatusEnum $status): string => $status->value,
+            array_filter(
+                PublishStatusEnum::cases(),
+                fn (PublishStatusEnum $status): bool => $status->isSettled(),
+            ),
+        ));
+
+        $this->assertSame($expected, PublishStatusEnum::settledValues());
+    }
+}